NFL picks: Will Bills end Chiefs’ three-peat bid? Commanders or Eagles to rep NFC in Super Bowl?

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates following an NFL football AFC divisional playoff game against the Houston Texans Saturday, Jan. 18, 2025, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Using the incomparable combination of football analysis and excessive hype, editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice, and Dan Parr of FL.com will forecast every game of the 2024 NFL season.

The reason Tom chose the Commanders:I was reminded of how carelessly I had picked against Jayden Daniels both that week and again before each improbable postseason upset when I rewatched Washington’s comeback victory against Philadelphia in Week 16. Each time, I made the mistake of assuming Daniels and his team of courageous odds-defiers would be confronted with the harsh reality of playing against better opponents. Rather, the celebration continued.

The NFC Championship Game offers yet another chance to challenge the Commanders and feel virtually certain that Washington will lose in the end to a favorite playoff opponent. The Eagles are in a strong position. They should present a lot more competition than the Lions club, which was overwhelmed by Washington last Saturday because of injuries. Their defense, which led the NFL in yards allowed during the regular season, has helped them win both of their playoff games so far.After his career-high two sacks, two passes defensed, and other stats, Jalen Carter will probably be even harder for the Commanders to stop without right guard Sam Cosmi, who tore his ACL against Detroit. and the Divisional Round’s huge forced fumble. They have already won postseason games and should present a lot more of a challenge than the Lions club, which was overpowered by Washington last Saturday because of injuries.After his career-high two sacks, two passes defensed, and huge forced fumble in the Divisional Round, Jalen Carter will probably be more harder for the Commanders to stop without right guard Sam Cosmi, who tore his ACL against Detroit.

Then thereHowever, the Destroyer of Logical Outcomes is Jayden Daniels. Furthermore, he isn’t truly performing magic. Even while some of his victories were unbelievable, you can always find a route to victory that followed the rules of time and space, even if he had to display some incredible bravery to make it public. Additionally, there is a viable path ahead in Philadelphia. In both postseason games, the opposition has outperformed the Eagles. Daniels and Terry McLaurin might then put Vic Fangio’s team on its heels a little, mirroring the performance of Week 16, if the Commanders’ defense, which has kept opposition quarterbacks to a passer rating of 81.4 in the postseason thus far, can hold Philly down for a sufficient amount of time.

Daniels could also just come out dealing, regardless of everything I wrote above, and simply dazzle his way into the Super Bowl. Ultimately, I’m going with my gut, which I often regret — but I’d much rather pick with one the NFL’s brightest young talents than bank on someone figuring out how to dim.

Why Gennaro picked the Bills: Because I’m insane. At least according to a trite quotation often misattributed to Albert Einstein: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Kansas City just keeps doing the same thing over and over again, and here I am expecting a different result.

Playing in their seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs are eyeing a fifth Super Bowl appearance in six seasons. Over the past 13 months, Kansas City’s starters have lost one game. Of course, that lone setback came against these Bills. The Chiefs’ mid-November defeat at Buffalo wasn’t surprising, either, considering the Bills were favored in the game. Not to mention, the victory improved Josh Allen’s regular-season record against Patrick Mahomes to 4-1. But it’s a different story in the playoffs, where Mahomes boasts a perfect 3-0 mark in the QB duel. So, what makes me believe Allen will finally slay his Chief tormentor in the postseason? Well, speaking of insanity …

I think the Bills can out-Chief the Chiefs.

Unlike Andy Reid’s early teams with Mahomes under center, the contemporary Chiefs don’t overwhelm opponents with shock and awe. These days, Kansas City is more boringly effective, as Mahomes himself underscored after last Saturday’s 23-14 win over Houston: “Everybody’s winners on this team, and I think that’s what makes us special. So, it doesn’t always have to be an offensive explosion, it doesn’t always have to be the defense locking it down — it’s just, who can find a way to get a win and how can we do that?” These Chiefs want to establish the run, take care of the football and make splash plays on defense. The Bills can do that — only better! Buffalo finished the regular season with the NFL’s ninth-best rushing attack (131.2 yards per game), while Kansas City ranked 22nd (105.3 ypg). The Bills committed the fewest turnovers in the league (eight); the Chiefs tied for fourth-fewest (14). Defensively, the teams had the exact same sack total (39), but Buffalo produced a dozen more takeaways (32-20).

I know what you’re thinking: Kansas City has the ultimate trump card in the ultimate winner. That’s fair. Mahomes’ ability to shapeshift — and play whatever style is necessary to win any given matchup — is the kind of quarterbacking mastery that typically separates him from other elites at the position. But this season, it sure seems like Buffalo’s signal-caller is closing that gap. Gone are the days of superfluous hero ball from No. 17. Shoot, the Bills just beat a dynamic Ravens team with Allen totaling 147 yards of offense. This version of Allen doesn’t force things, having slashed his interception total from a career-high 18 last season to a career-low six in this campaign. This version of Allen, like Mahomes, lets the game come to him.

Now, Buffalo’s been better at home than on the road this season, so you can’t overlook the challenge of winning in the unfriendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium. As you can deduce from my predicted score above, I’m not here to tell you this is going to be easy. But neither is winning a ninth consecutive playoff game. That’s the task on tap for Kansas City in its quest for an unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat. Call me crazy, but I say the Chiefs fall short in that endeavor.

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